Analysts at JPMorgan project an increase of 150,000 in nonfarm employment for December, expecting the unemployment rate to inch up to 3.8%.
While acknowledging the robust job additions in recent months, the analysts caution that the November figures were boosted by the return of formerly striking employees, anticipating a slight cooldown in job growth between November and December.
They also predict that the overall trend in employment growth will continue to moderate over time. The bank foresees concentrated job growth in December, particularly in industries less affected by higher rates, with health care, social assistance, and the public sector contributing to over 80% of the total employment gain.
Additionally, JPMorgan forecasts a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings due to ongoing labor market tightness.